Goldman now sees US data center construction spending hitting $125 billion in 2028

The bank counts about 86 GW of data center projects under construction in the US, plus $900 billion of projects that it rates as highly probable, TokenPost reported. Engineering and construction analyst Adam Bubes raised the numbers because all of the projects behind Goldman’s 2027 figure are already in the ground, according to ZeroHedge’s summary of the research. For 2028 the picture is thinner: roughly half of the projects Goldman tracks for that year have started work.

The revision came in a week when Goldman’s basket of AI data center stocks dropped 12% in one session, ZeroHedge noted. Goldman reviewed the moratorium proposed by Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa and expects it to hold up deliveries more often than kill projects, but warned of higher financing costs, smaller tax incentives and some canceled contracts. Texas accounts for 20% of the capacity under construction for 2027 delivery and 27% for 2028, hardware analyst Michael Ng wrote. Bubes argued that moratoria would mostly hit projects not yet started and push work into 2029 and 2030.

The spending call follows an earlier Goldman capacity update that lifted projected US data center capacity in 2030 to 152 GW from 125 GW. Assuming $50 billion of spending per gigawatt, the bank’s global outlook implies about $8.5 trillion of spending.

Growth across the sector does not mean every developer finishes, the bank cautioned: heavily indebted developers could be squeezed by delays and dearer credit, and a few may go under before their sites are running. Cleanview data cited by ZeroHedge show that nine states whose governors or governors-elect back a pause account for 158.6 GW of planned capacity, 41% of the US pipeline.